StayFlation on the web and in the news

• November 22, 2021
  StayFlation: As expected, U.S. inflation numbers came out high, although the rate of change is coming down, suggesting that supply chain issues are steadily improving— ⛴ nonetheless, inflation is going to stay and I can still see a half-dozen cargo ships from Manhattan Beach — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• December 13, 2021
  StayFlation: U.S. inflation reached a nearly 4 decade high, but we’ve talked about inflation for a while; within a few months, the growth rate of inflation should decrease — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• December 27, 2021
  Year in Review: "inflation, StayFlation, delta variant, omicron🦠, global protests," — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• January 10, 2022
  StayFlation: Inflation will moderate but remain higher than what we’ve had over the last dozen years— in other words, it is here to stay — in fact, the Fed may use economic growth and inflation to try to save the government from its massive debt burden by inflating it away — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• February 18, 2022
  Stayflation: Inflation That Won’t Go Away! — Tempus Advisory

• February 21, 2022
  Great to good: Economy is going from great to good. Inflation should moderate but won’t disappear (our StayFlation scenario). Expect government policy to go from very stimulative to neutral, but not restrictive; however, policy mistakes are the norm and play out over the long term while market sentiment is short-term, highly reactionary😳and can turn on a dime — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• March 7, 2022
  StayFlation: War makes inflation worse by destroying supply and straining resources. We remain with our StayFlation thesis—Inflation will stay with us at higher levels than we have been accustomed to. The knock on effects from sanctions against Russia will not help — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• March 21, 2022
  StayFlation: Rents of single-family homes have increased +12.6% nationally (up +38% in Miami, +16% in Vegas, +9% in L.A., and up +6% in D.C.). Apartment rents are up +12% to +17% nationally, depending on the source — Good news for real estate owners — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• April 4, 2022
  Stayflation: Inflation is a tax on consumers😫 — Consumer free cash flow is declining and is often a leading indicator of problems. Yes or no? Whether or not a recession comes will be the topic that dominates mindshare later this year — especially as the frequency of headlines increase — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• April 25, 2022
  Stayflation: As we approach the 1-year anniversary of recent inflation spikes, a higher base inflation rate should slow down the relative growth rate of inflation — in English, inflation going from 2% to 8% creates a larger spike than when it goes from 8% to 9% — Nonetheless, inflation is not disappearing anytime soon — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• April 25, 2022
  Stayflation: "Might “stayflation” frustrate the Fed’s 2.0% inflation goal? … We explain our view of inflation as a tug-of-war between four inflationary forces and four deflationary ones." — Yardeni Research

• May 2, 2022
  May Day: The U.S. economy plunges into summer mode with still positive growth and domestic demand — the economy can remain hearty while price inflation moderates to Stayflation — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• May 16, 2022
  Baby in a Corner: StayFlation remains our call; inflation will remain with us for longer and at higher levels than we’ve grown accustomed to over the last decade — expect inflation to peak this summer and to recede to 3%-4% next year — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• June 13, 2022
  StayFlation: U.S. inflation increased +8.6%, energy prices increased +34.6%, gasoline +48.7%, electricity +12.0%, natural gas up +30.2%, and food up +11.9% in May compared to a year ago — Although Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are supposedly trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates and selling bonds (to take cash out of the economy), they are more than just a little off-target! The Fed has no control over food and energy prices and little control over general inflation unless they push the U.S. into recession, which seems increasingly likely — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• July 4, 2022
  Stayflation: "Yardeni sees a stagflationary scenario, in which the economy grows at a slow 2% alongside inflation that recedes from today’s sky-high levels but remains higher than we’ve been used to and persists for longer. Call it 'stayflation,' he says." — Kiplinger's Money PowerInvesting: The economy’s three potential paths

• July 18, 2022
  StayFlation: This has been one of our predominant themes since last year, and we are sticking to it — Inflation is not dissipating for a variety of reasons and will remain higher than we we’ve grown accustomed to over the last couple decades — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• August 8, 2022
  StayFlation: Inflation is peaking, which means it is still rising, but not as fast, and some things, like used car prices, are declining. Inflation will dampen when supply chain and labor bottlenecks ease. Our StayFlation call from last year remains intact with inflation settling above 3% — Private real estate, credit funds, and collectible investments may provide a hedge here — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA

• August 2022
  Stayflation: So much for transitory. — Actalent

• November 21, 2022
  Stayflation: "Consumer inflation expectations have moved back up—holiday shopping and travel sticker shock maybe?🎄❄—Expect inflation to keep hanging around…" — Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA